TAT pleasantly surprised ...

Thanks to a surge in tourism arrivals in the last quarter of 2009, the Thai tourism industry is projected to close this year with a total of 14 million arrivals, down just 4% over 2008.

In 2010, the forecast is for a 7-10% increase to between 15 million and 15.5 million visitors, "if no serious incidents of political or other threats arise" - a caveat that has now become a fixed part of the tourism forecasters' lexicon.

According to a Tourism Authority of Thailand report released last week, the first half of 2008 saw a 16% decline in arrivals, thanks to the impact of the global financial crisis, fears of the H1N1 flu pandemic and the lingering fallout from the eight-day closure of Suvarnabhumi airport in late 2008.

Arrivals from Northeast Asia were worst hit (-30%), followed by the American and Oceania markets. The Asean and European markets were not too badly hit and the South Asia and Middle East markets maintained growth rates.

Since August 2009, the report says, the situation has been improving steadily.